Simpson’s Paradox

In many countries around the world including Australia, non-firearm weapons have been associated with the dominant fraction of violent crimes.

The Mission River in Weipa has a history of being a dangerous waterway because it is full of bull sharks. However, recently the crocodiles have moved in and eaten many of the sharks.” Is it safe to go for a swim in the Mission River now the sharks are gone?

The formula for calculating the percentage increase or decrease is:
X = sum of (latest value – former value) / former value.

The increase in legal firearms was 31% (1999-2009) to (2009-2019). Legal ownership requires a history of responsible and secure management.

Ten-year periods:

For the period 1999-2009, the firearm-related homicide total 464 and for the period, 2009-2019 the firearm-related homicide total 364—about 4.7 per cent reduction.

For the period 1997-2007, the non-firearm related homicide total 3060 and for the period 2007-2017 the non-firearm related homicide total 2498—about 20.8 per cent reduction.

Why did the percentage of non-firearm homicide decrease about four times greater than firearm-related homicide?

Perhaps there are times when the circumstances favoured the victim and the criminals deterred, which raises this question, how many attempted violent crimes go unreported?

Why wouldn’t an attempted crime not be reported?

There exists an after-the-fact prohibition law that will punish responsible firearm owners even if they have acted lawfully.

No doubt those that enjoy recreational arguing have an opposing explanation because the inherent predilection for accepting things they feel should be right results in obfuscating rhetoric.

Half canned responses and insults are of no value to the research. However, responses that explain and challenge welcome.