Whilst the proposed Act adds very little to the number of firearms already registered and has much to do with other types of regulated weapons, the aspect of statistics with reference to the BuyBack outcome theory is relevant to discuss because only one theory has been offered regarding the outcome.
It is called a theory because it can not be proven that there is a link between the number of firearms in circulation and violence in society. If one was to say, “Where is the proof?” The response would be the statistics of lower firearm suicides and firearm homicides since 1990 as illustrated below.
But what if there was another explanation, another theory equally plausible but one supported by medical evidence?
The outcome of statistics relies on what data sets are selected for analysis. This is described as the “Simpson’s Paradox”.
The Simpson’s paradox is a phenomenon in probability and statistics, in which a trend appears in several different groups of data but disappears or reverses when these groups are combined. This result is often encountered in social-science and medical-science statistics and is particularly problematic when frequency data is unduly given causal interpretations.
An approximation of this graph is often presented as evidence that the removal of legally owned firearms had an impact on violent crime.
The “National Firearms Buyback Program”, which ran from October 1996 through September 1997, was held for 12 months and retrieved 650,000 guns. In addition to this was 68,727 hand-guns.
So what happened between 1990 and 2006, and beyond to today, 2020?
In 1996 there were about 2.2 million registered firearms in circulation. Following the buyback, people were joining sporting shooters. Each year there was significant growth in the sport and today in 2020 there are about 2.15 million registered firearms and over one million sporting shooters, and the sport continues to grow.
The increasing number of firearms after buyback is also a data set.
The data set of numbers of firearms increasing after 1995 should not be ignored because:
“Why hasn’t there been a corresponding increase in firearm suicide and firearm homicide if the number of firearms in circulation is a factor? ”
Another data set submitted for consideration:
As evidenced by peer-review medical journals the passive intake of heavy metals included mercury and lead causes neurological disorders that affect the central nervous system and the brain’s cognitive capacity and tolerance to certain stimuli. We have all heard of the “mad hatter” and his anger issues and troubles with depression.
- When was lead removed from petrol?
- When were the clean fuel improvements to oil refining being made?
In addition to improvements in cleaner fuel production, there were environmental and occupational health improvements being made in various industries including welding and industrial ventilation; battery manufacturing; metal works; industrial wastes; removal of aging lead pipes; air pollution from vehicles; disposal of waste to water and soil; and changes to cookware; hair dye; and dental amalgams.
Many peer-reviewed studies support the belief that passive intake of heavy metals impacted adversely the many and more so on a few.
It is respectfully submitted that the theory of reducing firearms will reduce firearm-related suicide and murder only stands if the data sets of the number of firearms increasing after 1996 and the data set of heavy metals reducing are ignored.
We lived in a far more toxic environment prior to 1990 and as these heavy metal toxins were steadily removed there was a corresponding steady reduction in depression and violence.
If you lived through the 1970s and 1980s ask yourself this question:
Comparing now to then, how many road rage incidents have you witnessed?
Road rage is an impulse as are other forms of “rage” that result in violence. Depression is a stepping stone to suicide, and the intake of heavy metals may cause depression.